医改理论与实践Workshop: One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss
时间：2017年11月13日（周一）12:15 - 14:00
题目：One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss
This paper studies the marriage distortion and the associated welfare loss caused by the One-Child Policy (OCP) in China. Using the variation in the ethnicity-specific assigned birth quotas and different fertility penalties across provinces over time, we first show that the OCP induced a significantly higher unmarried rate and more interethnic marriages. Using the sufficient statistics approach, we derive a formula for the social welfare loss caused by the OCP- induced lower fertility and marriage distortion, and it only depends on the estimated reduced- form elasticities. Our estimates imply that the welfare loss caused by lowered fertility and marriage distortion is 2.6 and 1.1 percent of annual household income, respectively.
Yi Zhou is an assistant professor in Center for Social Research at Peking University. His research interests include Economic Demography, Formal Demography and Family Economics. He has published articles in Population and Development Review, Social Science & Medicine, Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory, Chinese Sociological Review, Economics Letters, 《经济研究》 and《 经济学（季刊）》. He received the 18th National An-Zijie International Trade Research Award （第十八届安子介国际贸易研究奖）in 2014.