赵波教授论文为宏观经济学国际一流杂志Review of Economic Dynamics接收

发布日期:2017-11-08 11:11:19    来源:北京大学国家发展研究院

北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授独著论文”too poor to retire? Housing prices and retirement” 被宏观经济学国际一流杂志Review of Economic Dynamics 接收。Review of Economic Dynamics 是 Society for Economic Dynamics 的官方会刊,1998年由诺贝尔经济学奖得主Sargent建立。

中文摘要:在07-09年美国经济危机期间,临近退休年龄的美国居民大幅缩减了消费同时增加了劳动参与率,这与其他工作年龄人口的劳动参与率的下降形成了鲜明对比。文章实证研究表明在美国区域房价下降幅度更大的地区,老年房主的劳动参与率相对于同期的老年租户的劳动参与率有着显著的上升,消费则有明显的下降。本文提出房屋价格变化导致的财富效应可以解释这一观测现象。文章构建并校准了一个包含房价风险和内生退休决策的不完全市场生命周期局部均衡模型,证实了结构模型所预测的退休行为和消费变化与利用美国健康和退休调查(HRS,1992-2012)所得到的实证发现相符。在此基础上,模型预测在未预期的一次性房屋价格下降28%后,55-64岁的老年房主的消费大约下降4.6%,劳动参与率上升1个百分点,并延迟退休近3个月。模型同时定量的估算了内生退休决策对于缓解房价风险的自我保险强度。

英文摘要:

The near-retirement households among all working-age groups in the United States experienced larger drops in consumption and greater increases in labor force participation during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Also, the retirement probability for near-retirement homeowners (but not for renters) decreases more in those areas where housing prices also decline more. This paper argues that the wealth effect of housing prices on retirement can account for those issues. It creates an incomplete-market life-cycle partial-equilibrium model with risky housing assets and endogenous retirement and verifies that the joint response of retirement and non-durable consumption implied by the structural model is consistent with the empirical findings using data from the Health and Retirement Study 1992-2012. It then shows that, after an unexpected 28 percent housing price decline, near-retirement homeowners ages 55-64 will reduce their non-durable consumption by 4.6 percent and increase their labor force participation by 1 percentage point immediately and delay their retirement by 2.8 months in the long run. The model also quantifies endogenous retirement as self-insurance for elderly homeowners against housing price risk.

论文下载too_poor_to_retire

20170804111156109
助理教授赵波

 

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