近日，国家发展研究院2007级校友徐轶青以其论文"Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models"荣获2018年《政治分析》杂志年度最佳论文奖——米勒奖。
此前，徐轶青的这篇论文已获得《政治分析》杂志的年度“编辑推荐奖”。这篇论文将计量经济学家白聚山老师的工作引入到因果推断的框架内，拓展了经济学家常用的倍差法（Difference-in-Differences）。这个想法引起包括Guido Imbens和Susan Athey等经济学家的注意，他们近期在此基础上做了进一步拓展。
Dear Members of PolMeth
On behalf of this year's Miller Prize Committee (Jennifer Pan, Pablo Barberá, and Jonathan Katz, any myself (recused)), I am pleased to announce that the 2018 Miller Prize for the best work appearing in Political Analysis (in 2017) was awarded to Yiqing Xu for his article entitled "Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models” (https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2016.2). Please join me in congratulating Xu on this honor. The award citation is pasted below. Thank you to the committee for their work on this.
Time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data is widely used in the social sciences to examine the impacts of policies and events on aggregate units such as states, schools, or firms. Commonly researchers employ a difference-in-differences framework that simply assumes away the presence of time-varying confounds by imposing a parallel trends assumption. However, since units are heterogeneous and often follow their own trends this parallel trends assumption is unrealistic in many social science settings, leading to invalid inferences. Xu’s Political Analysis article “Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models” makes an important contribution that advances the methodology for causal inference with TSCS data. It provides researchers with a flexible estimator that constructs more plausible counterfactual trends by generalizing the synthetic control method and combining it with interactive fixed effects. Xu’s method allows for time-varying confounds and contains the often used two-way fixed effects model as a special case. Xu's estimator is widely applicable and provides a unique contribution that highlights how political methodology can contribute to exporting methodological advances to other disciplines.