主持人：余淼杰 余昌华 王歆
题目：Global Value Chain and Business Cycle Co-movement: Does Distance Matter?
摘要：This paper investigates the effect of two countries' distance along global value chain on business cycle co-movement. We construct an index that measure one country's position in global value chain and then empirically test if distance in global value chain affects business cycle correlation. The main finding in this paper is that distance along global value chain has significantly positive effect on business cycle co-movement. The closer the two countries' distance along global value chain, the more co-moved their business cycles. This paper also suggests that TFP correlation may be the main channel through which shock transmit along global value chain. The finding is robust to a large set of control variables and several variations in model specification.
Daoju(Claire) Peng is an Assistant Professor at Capital University of Economics and Business. He received his PhD from the Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2015 and master degree from Renmin University of China in 2010. His research areas are Macroeconomics, International Finance, Development and Chinese Economy.