China Economic Journal Volume 4. No. 1. 2011 目录摘要

发布日期:2011-11-10 11:07:46    来源:北京大学国家发展研究院

Table of Content 期刊目录

1. China and the global economy 

Justin Yifu Lin

Pages 1-14

 

2. China's interest in a revaluation of the yuan

John Williamson

Pages 15-23

 

3. Achieving capital account convertibility in China

Yiping Huang, Xun Wang, Qin Goua & Daili Wang

Pages 25-42

 

4. China's macroeconomic stability – an empirical study based on survey data

Chia-Shang James Chu, Tianyi Wang & Huihui Li

Pages 43-64

 

5. Entrepreneurship and bureaucratic control: the case of the Chinese automotive industry

Wan-wen Chu

Pages 65-80

 

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1. China and the global economy 

Justin Yifu Lin

Pages 1-14
Abstract: As a result of the extraordinary performance in the past 20 years, China's status in the global economy has dramatically changed. In this article, I reflect on China's unprecedented growth, examine the reasons for that growth, and discuss promising prospects for the Chinese economy to maintain an 8% annual growth rate in the coming two decades. Although to maintain that growth rate, China will definitely encounter many challenges – both internally and externally. The twenty-first century has witnessed the emergence of a multi-polar growth world, with many of the new growth poles being emerging market economies. China has become the top contributor to global GDP growth in the decade of 2000–2009. If China copes appropriately with its challenges and deepens its structural reforms, it has the potential to continue its role as a leading power in supporting a multi-polar global economic architecture that benefits both developing and high-income countries in various ways.   
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.609612

 

2. China's interest in a revaluation of the yuan

John Williamson

Pages 15-23

Abstract: This paper aims to illustrate how an equilibrium exchange rate of the Yuan would contribute to China's achievement of non-inflationary full employment – defined as internal balance by James Meade in 1951, as well as the balance of international payments. In terms of Meade's model, China currently has both excess demand and a payments surplus, so that it would benefit from revaluation, which helps curb internal inflation and the external foreign surplus simultaneously. For China, specifically, revaluation would support combating price increases and facilitate a shift of resources into consumption and raising living standards. The paper also examines three common reasons advanced by groups in favor of avoiding appreciation of the RMB, finding none of them theoretically or empirically convincing. The pursuit of both growth/employment and price stability objectives makes China unable to afford having an undervalued exchange rate.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.618696

 

3. Achieving capital account convertibility in China

Yiping Huang, Xun Wang, Qin Gou & Daili Wang

Pages 25-42

Abstract: China has been delaying the plan of achieving capital account convertibility since the Asian financial crisis, although restrictions on capital flows have been reduced steadily, confirmed by the falling Capital Account Control Index. Current restrictions exist mainly for cross-border portfolio investment, debt financing and outward direct investment (ODI). Effectiveness of these restrictions, however, has been declining over time. While capital controls probably helped support domestic financial stability in the past, their potential costs are rising quickly, evidenced by losing independence of the monetary policy. China already possesses a range of favorable conditions for capital account liberalization, including stable macroeconomic situation, healthy fiscal and financial systems, and strong external accounts. Some of these conditions may be reversed in the coming years. Therefore, China should probably try to achieve basic capital account convertibility within the next three to five years. This requires, among others, establishment of market-based interest rates and exchange rates. The authorities could probably remove restrictions on debt financing and ODI quickly. For the more volatile portfolio investment, they could retain the existing qualified foreign institutional investor and qualified domestic institutional investor schemes, with significantly increased quotas but substantially reduced restrictions during the transition period.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.609645

 

4. China's macroeconomic stability – an empirical study based on survey data

Chia-Shang James Chu, Tianyi Wang & Huihui Li

Pages 43-64

Abstract: A complete financial stability analysis should include investigation on macroeconomic stability since macroeconomic development and potential imbalance can increase the financial instability and trigger a financial crisis. Survey data of rating on China's macroeconomic stability is analyzed by estimating an ordered logit model with random effect. Among the candidate macroeconomic indicators, we found that inflation is the key variable that determines China's macroeconomic stability, followed by the change in budget balance and GDP growth gap.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.609329

 

5. Entrepreneurship and bureaucratic control: the case of the Chinese automotive industry

Wan-wen Chu

Pages 65-80

Abstract: Whether and how will the state treat different kinds of enterprises, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs, in the related industry differently? Does this concern give its industrial policy any special Chinese characteristics? This article looks at a particular aspect of the Chinese automotive industry policy, that is, regulating entries, which poses special problems for the government. It explores why the government still retains this method of control even after it has been shown to be ineffective, and how the government tries to reconcile it with the aim of promoting entrepreneurship. The government finds that it cannot do away with entrepreneurship brought by the unplanned entrants (SOEs or not) to keep the industry competitive. Moreover, with SOEs accounting for the major part of the auto industry, the government has to protect the SOEs and propel them to upgrade at the same time. The government is thus likely to continue regulating entries, while trying to find a balance between the needs of keeping entrepreneurship and managing SOEs.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.608507