China Economic Journal Volume 4. No. 2-3. 2011 目录摘要

发布日期:2012-02-14 11:09:28    来源:北京大学国家发展研究院

Table of Content 期刊目录

1. Uncertainty and risk analysis of the Langrun Chinese GDP Forecast: Fan Charts revisited

Hao Yu

Pages 81-104

 

2. The ECFA and its expected effect on cross-strait trade and investment: a Taiwanese perspective

Shin-Horng Chen, Meng-chun Liu & Pei-Chang Wen

Pages 105-124

 

3. Regional technical efficiency and technology gaps in rural China: evidence from CHIP surveys

Wenjun Liu

Pages 125-144

 

4. Capital structure choice and ownership: evidence from electronics enterprises in China

Ya-Hwei Yang & Daw Ma

Pages 145-158

 

5. The international competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing firms and the exit of the renminbi–dollar peg

Horatio M. Morgan

Pages 159-168

 

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1. Uncertainty and risk analysis of the Langrun Chinese GDP Forecast: Fan Charts revisited

Hao Yu

Pages 81-104

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a fan chart methodology for Chinese economic growth to incorporate uncertainty analysis into the gross domestic product growth forecast. Using the ‘Langrun Forecast’ project results exclusively, we estimate the density distribution for Chinese gross domestic product growth forecasts and build corresponding fan charts for the first time. Our analysis shows that the fan chart method effectively highlights the overall uncertainty and balance of risks surrounding Chinese gross domestic product growth, especially during the past international financial crisis between 2007 and 2009. Wallis' interval forecast test is conducted to evaluate the performance of the produced fan charts, and the results indicate that our forecasts perform well for the period being investigated.   
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.666056

 

2. The ECFA and its expected effect on cross-strait trade and investment: a Taiwanese perspective

Shin-Horng Chen, Meng-chun Liu & Pei-Chang Wen

Pages 105-124

Abstract: To come to terms with the realization of ASEAN+1, Taiwan had concluded with mainland China a special free trade agreement (FTA), the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in June 2010. This framework agreement provides an early harvest agreement of near-term tariff elimination, including detailed product schedules for goods and services from each side, with the final shape of fuller trade liberalization in goods and services taking years to negotiate and realize. The conclusion of the ECFA has been considered as a major breakthrough in cross-strait talks and economic relationships, even though it is by no means free from controversies inside Taiwan. The authors are therefore motivated by hot debates in Taiwan to reflect on the expected trade effect of the ECFA by taking into account the factor of cross-strait global production networks. In particular, we examine with a proposed model and statistical robustness, the trend of Taiwan-based firms' localization in mainland China, driven in part by constant movements in global production networks, which generates complicated and dynamic relationships between Taiwan's investment-induced trade and structural shift in Taiwan's exports to mainland China. Based on our empirical findings, we reflect on the conventional views on the trade effect of the free trade agreement. The results of our analyses tend to support a cautious view about the trade effect of the ECFA. Without denying the significance of the ECFA and deepening cross-strait economic relationships, we argue that the impact of the ECFA should be interpreted in a wider context than just the trade perspective, as the conventional wisdom and the existing evaluations suggested.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.666060

 

3. Regional technical efficiency and technology gaps in rural China: evidence from CHIP surveys

Wenjun Liu

Pages 125-144

Abstract: This paper uses household-level datasets called Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) surveys to investigate the regional technical efficiency, technology gap, and their determinants in rural China. A metafrontier production function approach is employed to fit the values of the technical efficiency and the technology gap ratio of rural households in six regions of China. The findings indicate that the technical efficiency improved remarkably from 1988 to 2002, but the technology gap ratio among regions changed slightly in the same period. The findings also show a negative relationship between the technology gap ratio and the regional technical efficiency for all regions except the northwest that has the lowest value of both the technical efficiency and the technology gap ratio. Next, the Tobit model is employed to discern the sources of efficiency and technology gaps. The results show that quality of agricultural labor, agricultural infrastructure, natural conditions, and farmer's political status have significant effects on farms' technical efficiency and technology gap ratio.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.666058

 

4. Capital structure choice and ownership: evidence from electronics enterprises in China

Ya-Hwei Yang & Daw Ma

Pages 145-158

Abstract: Empirical studies on capital structure mostly focus on listed companies and also on countries other than China. In this paper, we employ a panel dataset for 4,716 large and medium-sized enterprises in the Chinese electronics industry during the period 2005–2007 in order to investigate the determinants of their capital structure choice. Using the debt ratio as the dependent variable, we find that firm size and potential growth have a positive effect on the debt ratio whereas profitability has a negative effect. We show that decisions on the debt ratio are based on mixed factors that the various theories suggest. The unlisted Chinese companies which are unable to access to the securities market are prone to acquire bank loans as sources for funds which provides room for the modification of pecking order theory based on listed companies. As to ownership structure, we find that those Chinese electronics enterprises with higher portions of foreign equity tend to have lower debt ratios.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.698086

 

5. The international competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing firms and the exit of the renminbi–dollar peg

Horatio M. Morgan

Pages 159-168

Abstract: This paper evaluates the implications of a shift from a pegged to a floating exchange rate regime for the international competitiveness and the economic behavior of Chinese manufacturing firms. Using a conceptual framework that characterizes the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the potential source of a firm's competitive advantage, it yields two key analytical results. First, Chinese manufacturing firms may increase their reliance on a low-margin pricing strategy as the exchange rate regime shifts towards a more flexible one. As a corollary, a low-margin pricing strategy may discourage Chinese manufacturing firms from undertaking costly research and development (R&D) activities, and investments in human capital development. Second, Chinese manufacturing firms have the incentive to employ various wage restraint measures under a floating exchange rate regime at least in the short term. These key analytical results provide insights into a number of policy-relevant issues that may arise at the firm-level. It concludes by providing some general directions on the timing of a complete transition to a floating exchange rate regime.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2011.666059