China Economic Journal Volume 7. No. 3. 2014 目录摘要

发布日期:2014-11-28 11:19:23    来源:北京大学国家发展研究院

Table of Content 期刊目录

1. A Study of China’s Local Government Debt with Regional and Provincial Characteristics

Ho-Mou Wu & Shiliang Feng

Pages 277-298

 

2. Impact of Leverage on Investment by Major Shareholders: Evidence from Listed Firms in China

Yuan Yuan & Kazuyuki Motohashi

Pages 299-319

 

3. From internal imbalances to global imbalances: a survey on the causes of China’s export-led growth

Simon Sturn

Pages 320-342

 

4. Effect of China’s Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Next Decade: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis

Xin Li

Pages 343-360

 

5. Business Cycles in an Estimated DSGE Model of China

Biao Gu, Jianfeng Wang & Jingfei Wu

Pages 361-381

 

6. Industrial policy revisited: a new structural economics perspective

Justin Yifu Lin

Pages 382-396

 

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1. A Study of China’s Local Government Debt with Regional and Provincial Characteristics

Ho-Mou Wu & Shiliang Feng

Pages 277-298

Abstract: China’s Local Government Debt (LGD) grew rapidly after 2009. By using the National Audit Reports and self-collected data from provincial governments, we provide a decomposition of China’s LGD to the regional and provincial levels. We document regional characteristics regarding various aspects of LGD. When exploring provincial characteristics of LGD, we relate the causes of LGD to the mismatch of revenues and responsibilities in local government. By analyzing the structure of Local Government Fiscal Resources (LGFRs), we point out that LGD poses an essential challenge to China’s economic health due to the lack of fiscal transparency. We concisely analyze the expansion of Local Government Funding Platforms (LGFPs) and the issuance of Urban Development Investment Bonds (UDIBs). Finally, we propose several directions for a better management of LGD in both the short and long run, emphasizing adjustments of LGD term structures, improvement of financing channels, and reforms of fiscal systems to bring in more transparency and accountability. We suggest that the policies designed to resolve the LGD problem need to take into consideration the varying characteristics of LGD of different regions and provinces. 
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2014.961688

 

2. Impact of Leverage on Investment by Major Shareholders: Evidence from Listed Firms in China

Yuan Yuan & Kazuyuki Motohashi

Pages 299-319

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze whether leverage had impacts on investment in the period 1999–2009, and whether these impacts, if they exist, differed among companies with different investment opportunities and with different major shareholders. In order to identify governance with different major shareholders, we grouped China’s listed firms into central government owned firms (CSOEs), local government owned firms (LSOEs) and non-state-owned firms (NONSOEs). Our results are as follows. First, our analysis reveals that leverage does have significantly negative impacts on CSOE, LSOE and NONSOE investments. Secondly, in LSOEs and NONSOEs, negative leverage impacts on low-growth firms are stronger than average firms, implying that a disciplinary effect of leverage over investment can be found in LSOEs and NONSOEs. Finally, however, no such effect can be observed in CSOEs. We have provided a first finding that the effect of leverage varies according to a firm’s major shareholders.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2014.947707

 

3. From internal imbalances to global imbalances: a survey on the causes of China’s export-led growth

Simon Sturn

Pages 320-342

Abstract: There is a broad consensus that China’s export- and investment-led growth model is unsustainable and therefore needs to become more balanced. In the public debate, Chinese exchange rate interventions are mostly made (solely) responsible for this. But it is unclear whether and how much the Renminbi is undervalued, and if an exchange rate appreciation helps to reduce China’s current account surplus significantly. This survey reviews the international literature on China’s export-oriented growth model. Internal structural imbalances in the Chinese economy, resulting in an extremely low consumption-to-GDP share by historical and international standards, play hereby a central role. Related to this are: 1) the drop in household and wage income as a share of GDP and low employment growth, and its impact on consumption demand; 2) the increase in income uncertainty and inequality, and its impact on household savings; and 3) the role of government spending, i.e., high and increasing public surpluses. The central policy challenge is therefore to increase household incomes, and to reduce income inequality and uncertainty.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2014.947706

 

4. Effect of China’s Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Next Decade: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis

Xin Li

Pages 343-360

Abstract: Although the renminbi has appreciated over 30% against the US dollar since China launched exchange rate reform in the mid of 2005, the US Treasury Department still claims that the renminbi remains “significantly undervalued”. If that is true, how to adjust the currency effectively and rebalance the current account are challenges for the Chinese government. This paper explores the effect of alternative adjustments of China’s real exchange rate. Unlike previous simulation designs, this paper considers the formation mechanism of the real exchange rate. By assuming the same change in factor price during different periods and by using the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model, two different scenarios are simulated against the baseline. One scenario adjusts the macro-structural imbalance by decreasing the gross national savings rate in China, and the other adjusts the micro-structural imbalance by increasing the real wage rate of Chinese labor. The external imbalance is improved by both internal structural adjustments in the long term. The effect of macro-adjustment is more significant than the micro-adjustment. A real appreciation will be sufficient for China to improve its terms of trade and to change the export-oriented model into the demand-oriented model of development in the next decade.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2014.947701

 

5. Business Cycles in an Estimated DSGE Model of China

Biao Gu, Jianfeng Wang & Jingfei Wu

Pages 361-381

Abstract: A small-scale New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is estimated by maximum likelihood method using quarterly data of China. Model specifications and parameter equalities between various competing model variants are addressed by formal statistical hypothesis tests, while implications for business cycle fluctuations are evaluated via a variance decomposition experiment, second-moments matching, and some out-of-sample forecast exercises. It is highlighted that both forward and backward components are important for the dynamics of output, inflation and real balances. The monetary authority will take a sufficient aggressive stance, with a significant lagged response, to the current inflation pressure, while leaving less attention to changes in aggregate output. Variance decomposition reveals that large percentages of variations in real and nominal variables are explained by the highly volatile preference shock and potential output shock, respectively. When nominal and real frictions as well as additional shocks are included, our estimated model overall can successfully reproduce the stylized facts of business cycles in the actual data of China and even frequently outperform those forecasts from an unconstrained VAR.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2014.947703

 

6. Industrial policy revisited: a new structural economics perspective

Justin Yifu Lin

Pages 382-396

Abstract: Whether or not governments should play a facilitating role in economic development has long been a topic for economic discourse and research. As an important instrument to promote economic development, throughout history even to the present, industrial policy is often and actively used by governments. Much controversy surrounds whether and how governments should implement industrial policy.In this article, failures and successes of implementing such policies are analyzed through a new structural economics perspective. Specifically, the article argues that (1) sector-targeted industrial policy is essential to achieve dynamic structural change and rapid, sustained growth in an economy; (2) most industrial policies fail because they target industries that are not compatible with the country’s comparative advantages; (3) successful industrial policy should target industries that reflerct the country’s latent comparative advantages; (4) historical experiences show that in the catching-up stage, the industrial policies of successful countries, in general, have targeted the industries in countries with a similar endowment structure and somewhat higher per capita income; and (5) the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF), based on new structural economics, is a new, effective way to target latent comparative-advantage industries and support their growth.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2014.949025