China Economic Journal Volume 8. No. 1. 2015 目录摘要

发布日期:2015-04-07 11:20:01    来源:北京大学国家发展研究院

Table of Content 期刊目录

1. China’s exchange rate regime reform: Implications from the experiences of Japan, Korea and Taiwan

Yuming Cui

Pages 1-17

 

2. Financial deepening and income inequality: Is there any financial Kuznets curve in China? The political economy analysis

Kristijan Kotarski

Pages 18-39

 

3. Understanding China’s external imbalances

Yu Yongding

Pages 40-54

 

4. Will the Renminbi become a reserve currency?

Daili Wang, Yiping Huang & Gang Fan

Pages 55-73

 

5. Short-term jobs and long-term job loss of large supermarket entry

Chuanchuan Zhang & Xiaoyan Lei

Pages 74-85

 

6. Why I Do Not Support Complete Capital Account Liberalization (Commentary)

Justin Yifu Lin

Pages 86-93

 

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1. China’s exchange rate regime reform: Implications from the experiences of Japan, Korea and Taiwan

Yuming Cui

Pages 1-17

Abstract: This paper reviews the process of exchange rate regime reform of three economies: Japan, Korea and Taiwan, with emphasis on background, policies applied, and corresponding consequence in different periods. Lessons drawn from the experiences of these three economies are important and valuable for China’s ongoing exchange rate regime reform, although some could argue that China today is different from the three countries then. We argue that the Gradualism approach is the optimal option for RMB revaluation rather than the One-off approach. Follow-up monetary and fiscal policies are needed to maintain export and economic growth when the currency is being revaluated, but the timing and scale of policies are equally important. China’s exchange rate regime reform should be regarded as an integral component of a broad financial system reform rather than considered alone. In addition, an integrated financial market reform is a pre-condition for achieving smooth exchange rate regime reform. Last but not least, the policies for long-term economic structure adjustment and industry upgrading need to be prepared by China’s authority in order to respond to the possible adverse impact of RMB exchange rate region reform on its economy. 
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2015.1001013

 

2. Financial deepening and income inequality: Is there any financial Kuznets curve in China? The political economy analysis

Kristijan Kotarski

Pages 18-39

Abstract: The interconnectedness of financial deepening and income inequality has been a highly controversial discussion which has not been concluded despite many empirical and theoretical studies up to date. One of the basic building blocks for many research designs is the reliance upon the Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve which postulates that in the first phase of economic growth income inequality increases, peaks and then decreases to a tolerable level in the later phase after a certain income level had been attained. The role of financial deepening in financing economic growth is an indispensable and necessary condition enabling us to easily draw an analogy between financial deepening and income inequality in a financial version of the Kuznets curve. In spite of 30 years of economic and financial reforms in China, which represents a fairly young history of economic growth and development, there are many indicators that Chinese experience significantly deviates from the presupposed inverted U-shaped curve trajectory and its final equalizing effect. This paper relies on financial deepening data measured by monetary aggregate M2/GDP and domestic banking credit/GDP ratios in its claim that they significantly correlate with rising income inequality. The author’s intention consists not in claiming that financial deepening per se causes income inequality, but provides a political economy analysis of the specific institutional and power configuration which leads to their positive relationship. This configuration is determined by the prevailing banking model, the hukousystem, financial repression and the decentralized authoritarian system. On the other hand, the absence of inequality-narrowing institutitons further aggravate the problem. All the aforementioned factors are geared at avoiding mechanical and spurious claims that financial deepening increases or decreases income inequality across countries. A historical institutionalism approach to explain China’s path related to the Kuznets curve prediction shows the central validity of open and inclusive institutions in generating inequality-narrowing benefits of financial deepening.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2015.1001051

 

3. Understanding China’s external imbalances

Yu Yongding

Pages 40-54

Abstract: The paper is intended to provide a comprehensive explanation of China’s external imbalances, which are characterized by current account surplus and financial account surplus. The thrust of the paper is that China’s current account surplus is not simply an effect of the savings gap. Rather, it is a result of complicated interactions among various factors in a dynamic fashion. Hence, to keep the current account surplus-to-GDP ratio at a rational level, the implementation of comprehensive policies that address all relevant factors at the same time as well as fundamental restructuring are necessary.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2015.1001052

 

4. Will the Renminbi become a reserve currency?

Daili Wang, Yiping Huang & Gang Fan

Pages 55-73

Abstract: In recent years, the authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have made great efforts to internationalize its currency. Will Renminbi (RMB) finally become a reserve currency? This paper addresses the above question from an institutional analytical framework. We find that if only economic fundamentals are used in the prediction, the expected share of the RMB in global currency reserves could reach 10% at the end of 2011. However, if institutional variables are included, the predicted share comes down to around 2%, which is a more realistic prediction. The work then proposes reform actions in developing China’s institutional environment so as to facilitate the RMB to realize the 10% potential. In general, we believe that the RMB’s international role should increase in the coming years, but it will take a relatively long period before it plays the role of a global reserve currency.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2015.1001053

 

5. Short-term jobs and long-term job loss of large supermarket entry

Chuanchuan Zhang & Xiaoyan Lei

Pages 74-85

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of emerging supermarkets on local employment at the city level. Using a panel dataset for the period between 2000 and 2006, we find that entry of supermarkets largely increases employment in the wholesale and retail sector and other related sectors in the year of entry, but the positive effect on employment on the wholesale and retail sector only persists for a short period of time. It reverses two years later, due possibly to exits or contracting of small retailers. Further evidence from another dataset at the community level supports this explanation.

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2015.1002175

 

6. Why I Do Not Support Complete Capital Account Liberalization (Commentary)

Justin Yifu Lin

Pages 86-93

Link to the original text:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2015.1002178