时间：2016年11月16日2:00-3:30

地点：国家发展研究院万众楼一楼小教室

主讲人：Tuan-Hwee Sng  National University of Singapore

Title: The Effect of State Capacity under Different Economic Systems

Abstract：We empirically examine the effect of state capacity on economic development (1) when market and incentive mechanisms are suppressed and (2) when they are restored. In 1978, China began its transition from a command economy to a market economy. Focusing on the rural Sichuan province, we investigate if state capacity—proxied by the number of local communist party members—mattered to developmental outcomes in 1957–78 (Maoist period) and in 1978–85 (reform period). To tease out causal effects, we use the Long March, a military retreat undertaken by the Red Army in 1934–35, as an instrument. We find that counties with more communist members recorded faster output growth and lower mortality rates after 1978, but not before that. In fact, party membership numbers were positively associated with mortality rate during the Maoist period. These findings suggest that state capacity could indeed accelerate development, but the effect is substantial and unambiguous only when the state seeks to complement the market instead of substituting it.