时间：2015年12月22日（周二）10：30－12：00 am

地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心512教室

主持人：余淼杰

主讲人：俞志宏Zhihong Yu（诺丁汉大学，University of Nottingham）

题目：Volatility and Diversification of Exports: Firm-Level Theory and Evidence

摘要：We show using detailed firm-level Chinese data that, among small exporters, firms selling to a more diversified set of countries have more volatile exports, while the opposite holds among large exporters. This result, which stands in marked contrast to standard portfolio theory for small exporters, is robust to a wide array of specifications and controls. Our theoretical explanation for these observations rests on the presence of fixed costs of exports per destination and short-run demand shocks. In this setup, the volatility of a firm’s exports depends not only on the diversification of its destination portfolio but also on whether it exports permanently to all markets. Among small exporters, a more diversified pool of destinations makes the firm more likely to export occasionally to some markets, thereby raising volatility. These results cast doubt on the commonly held belief that diversification must decrease volatility.

主讲人简介：俞志宏博士现为英国诺丁汉大学（University of Nottingham）经济学院助教授，并兼任The World Economy副主编。他于2006年在英国诺丁汉大学（University of Nottingham）获得经济学博士学位。俞志宏博士的主要研究领域是国际经济学，并在国际知名一流经济学期刊如Economic Theory、Canadian Journal of Economics、Review of International Economics等上发表十余篇学术论文。

俞志宏博士的CV 1222_CV_Zhihong_Yu 和演讲所用的文章 1222_Paper 请见附件。