时间：2015年12月17日（周四）13：30 －15：00

地点：北大国家发展研究院 朗润园 512

主持人：霍德明 王敏 赵波

主讲人：董兵兵

题目：Forward Guidance and Credible Monetary Policy

摘要：The effectiveness of forward guidance depends crucially on the credibility of the central bank. Instead of assuming full commitment or full discretion of the central bank, this paper sheds light on the best credible forward guidance policy a central bank can offer by solving for the whole set of sustainable sequential equilibria (SSE) in a standard New Keynesian model with the occasionally binding constraint of a nominal interest rate of zero. The inflation bias resulting from eliminating price distortion under the best SSE is much smaller than the bias under full discretion. In the presence of the zero lower bound (ZLB), while the full commitment solution implies that forward guidance has a longer duration of the nominal rate at zero bound followed by a quick revert-to-normal path, the best SSE features low but non-zero rates, and even a prolonged period of higher inflation after the recession ends. To make forward guidance credible and as stimulative as possible, the adjustment of policy rates, and in particular, the rise of policy rates, should be smooth and gradual. In other words, policy normalization does not mean non-accommodation. Ramsey equilibria are not generally implementable.

 

主讲人简介：董兵兵，2004年毕业于中央财经大学，2008年获得北京大学中国经济研究中心硕士学位，后赴美留学并于2015获得美国弗吉尼亚大学经济学博士学位，现为中央财经大学助理教授。主要研究方向包括宏观经济学、金融经济学、计算经济学等。