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北京大学国家发展研究院

劳动经济学workshop: Too Early or Too Late: What Do We Learn from a 30-Year Two-child Policy Experiment

发布日期：2015-11-13 09:21    来源：北京大学国家发展研究院

 Labor Workshop

Time: 11月13日（周五）14:00-15:30

Room: 万众楼小教室

Speaker: 王非（中国人民大学）

简介：王非，中国人民大学劳动人事学院讲师，2014年毕业于美国南加州大学，获经济学博士学位，研究领域为发展经济学、人口经济学、劳动经济学、政策评估、应用微观计量。         

Abstract: We look into a 30-year two-child policy experiment in Yicheng, Shanxi to examine its impact on crude birth rate, aiming to help evaluate the potential effects of the national two-child policy announced in October 2015, and offer suggestion on prospective policy adjustment. We adopt a synthetic control approach which allows us to conduct a rigorous counterfactual analysis. We fail to find any short-term impact of two-child policy in Yicheng before the 1990s. In the long run, our estimation suggests that the two-child policy raised crude birth rate in Yicheng from 12.9 to 15.2 per 1000 people in 2000, and from 8.6 to 10.6 per 1000 people in 2010, which is fairly modest as compared to some official predictions.


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