题目:  Fiscal Inflation with Incomplete Information

主讲人：郭俊杰（中央财经大学金融学院）

时间：2025年6月4日 10:30-12:00

地点：承泽园344阶梯教室

摘要：We offer an explanation for fiscal inflation from the lens of in complete information between funded and unfunded fiscal shocks. While the former satisfies the Ricardian equivalence so that only the latter is inflationary under full information, there is no such a sharp distinction under incomplete information. Both fiscal shocks can generate persistent inflation. We identify unfunded fiscal shocks through a time-varying debt target. Estimation results suggest that the incomplete information allows the model to generate persistently high inflation that rationales the dynamics of inflation in the post-pandemic era.

Junjie Guo is an untenured associate professor at the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics. His research focuses on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and empirical macro. His work has been published in journals such as the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control and Economic Research Journal. He received his B.A. in economics from Renmin University of China, and received his Ph.D. in economics from the Indiana University, Bloomington.