宏观经济学workshop: A Lost Decade of Fiscal Misallocation

发布日期:2026-05-08 21:22    来源:
题目: A Lost Decade of Fiscal Misallocation
joint with Ippei Fujiwara, Zhenhe Lin, Michael Song, Chendong Wang
主讲人:Kosuke Aoki (University of Tokyo)
时间:2026年5月8日 上午10:00 – 11:30
地点:承泽园 345阶梯教室

摘要:This paper examines how fiscal expansion influenced resource allocation during Japan's Lost Decade (1993-2002).  We document two key empirical patterns: a deterioration in the allocation efficiency of government investment, and a substantial increase in government borrowing driven by interest rate declines.  We develop a politico-economic theory of the fiscal curse of easy borrowing: relaxing government borrowing constraint induces allocation to become more politically driven than efficiency-oriented.  This mechanism is incorporated into a quantitative model calibrated to the Japanese economy, and we conduct counterfactual exercises to assess its quantitative effects. If the government had been forced to spend the extra borrowing revenue on consumption while keeping the shadow price of government investment intact, the allocation of government capital would have improved substantially, raising aggregate TFP by 0.43\% and welfare by 0.31\% during the Lost Decade.

主讲人简介:Kosuke Aoki is Professor of Economics at the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University in 2000. His research interests lie in macroeconomics and monetary economics, with particular emphasis on credit frictions, monetary policy, asset price bubbles, and capital flows. He also serves as an advisor to the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan. Previously, he held positions at the London School of Economics, CREI–Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, and the Bank of England.



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