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北京大学
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Special Issue: Demographic Transition and Economic Development in China
Table of Content 期刊目录
1. The low fertility rate is the major demographic risk in China
Zhigang Guo
Pages 65-84
2. Will one child policy reduce entrepreneurship in China?
James Liang
Pages 85-95
3. Housing price and fertility rate
Li Pan & Jianguo Xu
Pages 97-111
4. Analysis on factors behind the decline of the agricultural labor share in total labor force of China (1990–2030)
Feng Lu & Yang Yewei
Pages 113-130
5. Toward deeper research and better policy for healthy aging – using the unique data of Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey
Yi Zeng
Pages 131-149
Article Abstract 文章摘要
1. The low fertility rate is the major demographic risk in China
Zhigang Guo
Pages 65-84
Abstract: In this paper, I argue that China's population has retained a low fertility rate for 20 years. However, population research has failed to raise sufficient awareness on this major change over a long period of time. As it is proven by the data from the Sixth National Population Census in China, birth rate level and fertility level both have been seriously overestimated in the past, while population aging process has been underestimated at the same time. China has repeatedly failed to achieve its goals in population development plans by large gaps. Results in population forecast and simulation indicate that the main problem of China's population in the twenty-first century has already shifted from the excessive growth of total population to the issue of population age structure. Population over-aging becomes a serious problem that looms large over the country's future. The biases in the publicity on population theories and in relevant estimation and forecast in the past prohibited the correct understanding on China's general population trend. This mistake causes seriously low fertility rate in China and will bring population risks of too few children and over-aging in the future.
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2012.761834
2. Will one child policy reduce entrepreneurship in China?
James Liang
Pages 85-95
Abstract: This paper argues that one child policy in China will negatively affect entrepreneurship in China 20 to 30 years later. The author first presents evidence that aging has been partially responsible Japan's recent economic stagnation. Then the paper presents evidence that young people are more able entrepreneurs. Moreover, the aging of the workforce can negatively affect entrepreneurship particularly for young people, because young people are promoted more slowly in an aging organization, and therefore accumulated less human capital to be successful entrepreneurs. Lastly, the paper predicts that entrepreneurship will suffer a great deal if China continues its one child policy.
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2012.761837
3. Housing price and fertility rate
Li Pan & Jianguo Xu
Pages 97-111
Abstract: The 6th National Population Census in 2010 shows China's total fertility rate is lower than the earlier estimation. It is also far below the replacement rate and world average fertility rate. China's low fertility rate is particularly worrisome in the background of emerging labor shortage and fast population aging when its per capita income is still low. In addition, low fertility rates in neighboring East Asian countries (regions) ignite more concern. We find that the urban fertility rate is strongly correlated with housing prices. Particularly, the fertility rate is higher in cities where housing is more spacious or housing price is cheaper. High housing price implies heavy living costs, which reduces resources available for raising children and the willingness to have children.
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2013.764675
4. Analysis on factors behind the decline of the agricultural labor share in total labor force of China (1990–2030)
Feng Lu & Yang Yewei
Pages 113-130
Abstract: The agricultural labor share in total labor force is determined by many factors, such as number of new participators and those leaving from labor force and transferring to non-farming. This article estimates the contribution of the determining factors for the changes of agricultural labor share during the period 1990–2030. Given the assumption about the average annual decline of the agricultural labor share in the future, the number of new participators in agricultural labor is estimated to decline from 20.23 million during 2005–2010 to 11.42 million during 2025–2030, and the numbers of leaving and transferring are estimated to change from 42.47 million and 38.32 million to 27.04 million and 29.49 million, respectively, during the same period. The average annual non-farming job creation may decline from 13.938 million to 7.016 million. Given the fact that pressure on agricultural labor transfer and non-farming job creation tends to ease but will exist in the long term. China shall adjust its employment policies from focusing only on quantity expansion to equally stress on ‘quantity and quality, speed, and structure’.
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2013.764674
5. Toward deeper research and better policy for healthy aging – using the unique data of Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey
Yi Zeng
Pages 131-149
Abstract: The objectives of this article are to facilitate deeper research and promote better policy analysis for healthy aging with sound policy and intervention programs. Toward these objectives, we introduce the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), which has been conducted by Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development of Peking University since 1998. We cover the CLHLS study design, sample distributions, contents, general quality assessment and availability of the CLHLS data collected. Such an introduction would be helpful to our colleagues who may be interested in using this unique and more-than-14-year longitudinal survey data resource for deeper interdisciplinary research and better policy analysis on healthy aging. To illustrate how the unique data resources of CLHLS may be useful, we also summarize and discuss ten selected healthy aging policy related researches based on data from the CLHLS. Finally, we discussed the future prospects using the unique and rich CLHLS datasets.
Link to the original text:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2013.764677
