China Economic Journal Volume 1. No. 2. 2008 目录/摘要

Table of Content 期刊目录

1.      China’s economic growth and its real exchange rate

   Rod Tyers, Jane Golley, Bu Yongxiang,Iain Bain               

   Page 123-146

2.      The determinants of peasants’family income in China’s west underdeveloped area: effects of working away from home village

   Zongyi Zhang, Feng Wang, Dongmei Yu, Qi Liu                

   Page 147-154

3.      Rate of return on venture capital investment in China

   Ping Qian and Wei Zhang                                      

   Page 155-164

4.      The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

   Chuliang Luo                                               

   Page 165-176

5.      Industry characteristics, spatial competition and industrial concentration – evidence from China

   Yeqiang Wang and Houkai Wei                                 

   Page 177-190

6.      The determinants and trends of China’s exportable structure

   Xiaojuan Jiang                                               

   Page 191-202

7.      Trade, product variety and welfare: a quantitative assessment for mainland China

   Michael Funke and Ralf Ruhwedel                               

   Page 203-212

8.      Understanding the recent performance of China’s stock market

   Zhixiong Zeng and Xiaoli Wan                                  

   Page 213-226

9.      How does economic transition breed corruption?

   Yong Guo                                                   

   Page 227-236

10.  Inflation pressure and price intervention: an ominous combination

   Qiren Zhou                                                

   Page 237-244

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1.      China’s economic growth and its real exchange rate

   Rod Tyers, Jane Golley, Bu Yongxiang,Iain Bain               

123-146

Abstract:

The shocks that underlie China's comparatively rapid growth include gains in productivity, factor accumulation and policy reforms that increase allocative efficiency. The well-known Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis links productivity growth in tradable industries with real appreciations. Yet it relies heavily on the law of one price applying for tradable goods, against which there is now considerable evidence. In its absence, other growth shocks also affect the real exchange rate by influencing relative supply or demand for home product varieties. This paper investigates the pre-conditions for the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis to predict a real appreciation in the Chinese case. It then quantifies the links between all growth shocks and the Chinese real exchange rate using a dynamic model of the global economy with open capital accounts and full demographic underpinnings to labor supply. The results suggest that financial capital inflows most affect the real exchange rate in the short term, while differential productivity is strong in the medium term. Contrary to expectation, in the long term demographic forces prove to be weak relative to changes in the skill composition of the labor force, which enhances services sector performance and depreciates the real exchange rate. 

Keywords:

exchange rate; economic growth; demographic change; Chinese economy 

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793959522

2.      The determinants of peasants’ family income in China’s west underdeveloped area: effects of working away from home village

   Zongyi Zhang, Feng Wang, Dongmei Yu, Qi Liu                

   147-154

Abstract:

There are more than one hundred million peasants working in non-agricultural industries away from their home villages in China. Using survey data of 2004 from Chongqing, the authors intend to research on the poverty of China's west economically backward area through investigating the peasants' family income and the out-of-rural workers' income, and have found out that working away from home village is the main source of peasants' income growth in China's economically backward area. Working away from home village gives peasants a chance to get directly engaged in the process of industrialization and urbanization, reducing the east-west inequality and rural-urban income disparity. 

Keywords: peasants; family income; working away from home village 

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793992464

3.      Rate of return on venture capital investment in China

   Ping Qian and Wei Zhang                                      

   155-164

Abstract:

The rate of return on venture capital investment of venture capital (VC) firms in China has been attracting increasing attention. We use robust multinomial regression models to analyze 56 exit projects of venture capital investment from 1999 to 2003 in China. The results show that the returns of state-owned VC firms are lower than those of non state-owned VC firms. Furthermore, the returns of the VC firms located in Shanghai and Shenzhen are higher than those in other regions. The capital scale of VC firms is negatively correlated with the rate of return. In addition, some variables, such as business duration, investment scale, investment duration and exit vehicle, are probably unrelated to rate of return on venture capital investment in China. 

Keywords: venture capital; local venture capital firm; exit; rate of return 

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793934921

4.      The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

   Chuliang Luo

   165-176

Abstract:

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles. 

Keywords: return to education; quantile regression; income distribution

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793964175

5.      Industry characteristics, spatial competition and industrial concentration – evidence from China

   Yeqiang Wang and Houkai Wei                                

   177-190

Abstract:

We study the determinants of a geographic concentration of manufacturing industries in a spatial competition framework. Based on a panel data set of China during 1995-2003, we have the following findings. First, some traditional comparative advantages in production factors such as labor endowment are becoming the major factors that prevent the industrial concentration. Second, the major factors that promote geographic manufacturing concentration are technology spillover and industry linkage. Third, the effect of economy of scale on manufacturing concentration is significant, but the direction depends on how the concentration is measured. 

Keywords: industry characteristics; spatial competition; geographic concentration  Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793943963

6.      The determinants and trends of China’s exportable structure

   Xiaojuan Jiang                                              

   191-202

Abstract:

The paper empirically investigates several key factors to determine changes in China's exportable structure. Based on this, it predicts the possible changes of China's export goods, especially of those with high value-added. It concludes that comparative advantage, market structure and the global integration penetration are the three most important factors to determine the exportable structure for each industry in China. 

Keywords: international trade; exportable structure; globalization   

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793954970

7.      Trade, product variety and welfare: a quantitative assessment for mainland China

   Michael Funke and Ralf Ruhwedel                              

   203-212

Abstract:

We calculate a variety of welfare gains for Mainland China, following the approach of Romer (1994), who emphasized that proper modelling of the impact of trade restrictions on the number of available product varieties is crucial for quantifying the welfare impact of trade liberalization. The empirical work presented relies on direct measures of product variety calculated from highly disaggregated trade data. The emerging conclusion is that freer trade has indeed boosted welfare. 

Keywords: trade liberalization; product variety; welfare; China 

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793959826

8.      Understanding the recent performance of China’s stock market

   Zhixiong Zeng and Xiaoli Wan                                 

   213-226

Abstract:

Employing time-series extrapolation and an out-of-sample forecast based on a bivariate VAR (vector auto-regression), we argue that the current boom of China's stock market represents a recovery that corrects the previous divergence of the stock market from the aggregate economic performance. Nevertheless, we caution that the speed of the recent rise in stock prices is alarming. If the current speed continues, then the stock market will soon become overheated in the sense that the level of stock prices will exceed the level justified by economic fundamentals. 

Keywords: chinese stock market; extrapolation; VAR out-of-sample forecast; recovery; overheating  

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a794005987

9.      How does economic transition breed corruption?

   Yong Guo                                                  

   227-236

Abstract:

Based on the existing literature, this paper discusses the relationship between economic transition and corruption, and argues that economic transition is one of the main roots of the spread of corruption in transitional China. It divides economic transition into four parts, and examines various channels by which economic transition breeds corruption opportunities. By applying the case statistical analysis method to analyze 594 major corruption cases, it finds the most corruption-prone areas, and provides some empirical evidence on the existence of such channels. 

Keywords: corruption; economic transition 

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793974119

10.  Inflation pressure and price intervention: an ominous combination

   Qiren Zhou                                               

   237-244

Abstract:

Of the debate regarding the new round of surging inflation in China, structural opinion interprets inflation as a problem of structural price growth, mainly brought about by a price hike for selected commodities as a result of exogenous shocks from different sectors. In line with the explanation, various measures aiming to control prices have been implemented recently. On the basis of basic economic principles and empirical evidence drawn from four cases, this essay argues that price intervention policies are counter-productive in bringing inflation down. 

* This paper is a speech given at the Twelfth Quarterly Conference of CCER China Economic Observer, China Center for Economic Research, at Peking University on 24 February 2008. 

Keywords: inflation; price intervention; monetary policy

Link to the original text:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a793991345