Table of Content 期刊目录
1. The international monetary system: evolution and revolution
Yanliang Miao & Xuan Fei
Pages: 235-252

2. The impact of financial sanctions on the international monetary system
Qiyuan Xu & Aizong Xiong
Pages: 253-262

3. The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses
Yu Yongding
Pages: 263-276

4. U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition
David Dollar
Pages: 277-289

5. For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade
Jane Golley, Vishesh Agarwal, James Laurenceson & Tunye Qiu
Pages: 290-309

6. China and global value chain restructuring
Yuqing Xing
Pages: 310-329

Article Abstract 文章摘要
1. The international monetary system: evolution and revolution
Yanliang Miao & Xuan Fei
Pages: 235-252
ABSTRACT
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, evolution has been the defining feature of changes in the IMS. The IMS has always been dominated by the US dollar. With it comes four structural issues: imbalance, lack of coordination, inade quacy, and weaponization of financial infrastructure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict will further accelerate the diversification and fragmentation of the IMS. But it might also lead to revolutionary changes such as balkanization of the IMS and even the end of financial globalization. Diversification of reserve currency could alleviate the imbalance and inadequacy problems of the IMS, restraining the dollar weaponization to some extent, but could not solve the problem of incoordination. Without a fair and inclusive IMS, ever larger financial spillovers will come from center countries to peripheral ones, and the global economy and financial system will face greater challenges in both efficiency and stability.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193

2. The impact of financial sanctions on the international monetary system
Qiyuan Xu & Aizong Xiong
Pages: 253-262
ABSTRACT
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Europe have taken financial sanctions against Russia, which have had an important impact. The frequent use of financial sanctions has exacerbated the distrust of the dollar system in emerging markets and developing countries, and shaken the logic of the dollar and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system as public goods of the international monetary system. However, the position of the US dollar and SWIFT is still hard to change. This does not mean that the international monetary system will remain the same forever. As the willingness to hold foreign exchange reserves declines, emerging markets and developing countries will either increase their tolerance of exchange rate volatility or implement more capital account regulation. Therefore, in the trend of de-globalization in the future, the international monetary system will turn out to be more volatile.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2118460

3. The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses
Yu Yongding
Pa Abstract
America’s current-account deficit has grown significantly since 2020, reaching 3.6% of GDP last year – its highest level since 2008. At the same time, its net foreign debt reached a staggering $18 trillion, or 78% of GDP. And fast-rising inflation has prompted the US Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates and reducing its holdings of Treasury securities – moves that are likely to impede growth and increase the government’s borrowing cost. Will America’s “external sustainability” be at risk again? To answer that question, we must consider the four variables on which external sustainability depends: the gap between private saving and private investment, the size of the budget deficit, investment-income levels, and the rate of GDP growth. Geopolitics might compound the challenges ahead. The US has avoided a balance-of- payments and dollar crisis in the past largely because Asian central banks and oil- exporting countries have tirelessly purchased US government bonds and Treasury bills. But amid rising geopolitical tensions, these buyers might decide – or be forced – to rethink their purchases. It is against this backdrop that the Fed is pursuing rather aggressive interest-rate hikes and quantitative tightening. But increased demand for foreign capital to finance the trade deficit, together with greater reluctance by foreign investors to purchase US government bonds and Treasuries, might put America in a quandary. It is likely that America’s external balance will deteriorate significantly, unless US GDP growth slows significantly.
ges: 263-276
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167

4. U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition
David Dollar
Pages: 277-289
Link to the original text:：

5. For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade
Jane Golley, Vishesh Agarwal, James Laurenceson & Tunye Qiu
Pages: 290-309
ABSTRACT
This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in bilateral political relations on Australia’s merchandise goods exports to China between 2001 and 2020. Using a vector autoregression framework, our estimates suggest that short-term fluctuations in political relations have no long-run effects on Australia’s aggregate export growth to China over this period, nor in any of three sub-periods analysed. A disaggregated analysis of 19 HS2 sectors reveals heterogenous short-run effects across sectors and time periods, with numerous sectors indicating the seemingly perverse finding that an increase in political cooperation/conflict is associated with a decrease/increase in export growth, with a lag of one to four months. We propose two hypotheses that are consistent with these findings, ‘doubling down’ and ‘dropping the ball’, contributing new understanding to the political relations-trade nexus in the context of a bilateral relationship that will likely be characterised by both cooperation and conflict in the decades ahead.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117180

6. China and global value chain restructuring
Yuqing Xing
Pages: 310-329
ABSTRACT
Global value chains have been a major means of manufacturing and trading goods internationally. Economic efficiency was the sole factor driving the proliferation of GVCs and the China-centered GVCs were established in a variety of manufactured products. In recent years, the China–US trade war and the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic have sent shock waves and disrupted smooth operations of GVCs, which has triggered the geographic restructuring of GVCs, in particular value chain diversification away from China. This paper analyzes the centrality of China in value chains and the vulnerabilities of GVCs exposed to the trade war and the pandemic. This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence on GVC restructuring from different perspectives and discusses policy options that China could cope with the tide of the value chain diversification.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198