Table of Content 期刊目录

1.Special issue: challenges of population ageing in China

Yiping Huang

Pages: 1-2

2. New trends in population aging and challenges for China’s sustainable development

Chen Bai & Xiaoyan Lei

Pages: 3-23

3. The effect of artificial intelligence on China’s labor market

Guangsu Zhou, Gaosi Chu, Lixing Li & Lingsheng Meng

Pages: 24-41

4. Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

Min Wang & Xiumei Yu

Pages: 42-61

5. How to reform China’s fiscal system?

Shuanglin Lin

Pages: 62-81

6. Openness, growth convergence and China’s development prospects

Xun Wang

Pages: 82-108

7.Business fixed investment of Chinese manufacturing firms in the post-financial crisis era

Ping Yan

Pages: 109-121

 

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1.Special issue: challenges of population ageing in China

Yiping Huang

Pages: 1-2

 

2. New trends in population aging and challenges for China’s sustainable development

Chen Bai & Xiaoyan Lei

Pages: 3-23

Abstract：

Population aging has increasingly become one of the most urgent problems in China. This paper reveals new trends in population aging in China and possible impacts on social and economic development in the future. We find that China will encounter the largest wave of population aging in the next 30 years, characterized by more individuals among the oldest-olds, more empty-nest elderly, and greater elderly dependency. These trends will impose challenges for China’s sustainable development on the supply and demand sides in the long term. Consequently, it is not only necessary to improve the old-age security system, but also to implement more innovative strategies to deepen human resource development, including among the older population.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1700608

 

3. The effect of artificial intelligence on China’s labor market

Guangsu Zhou, Gaosi Chu, Lixing Li & Lingsheng Meng

Pages: 24-41

ABSTRACT：

Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today’s economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretical substitution probability estimated by existing studies, our research estimates the actual substitution probability by AI for various occupations in China. By using this actual substitution probability on occupation level, we also explore the substitution effects on labor force with different characteristics and find that AI has larger substitution impacts on labors of female, old age, low education and low income. We also predict the number of employed people that would be replaced by AI in each industry, and the results show that China will have 278 million labors (201 ~ 333 million under different adoption rates) replaced by AI by 2049, representing 35.8% of the current employment in China.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201

 

4. Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

Min Wang & Xiumei Yu

Pages: 42-61

ABSTRACT：

Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681198

 

5. How to reform China’s fiscal system?

Shuanglin Lin

Pages: 62-81

ABSTRACT：

As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1691356

 

6. Openness, growth convergence and China’s development prospects

Xun Wang

Pages: 82-108

ABSTRACT：

This paper examines China’s long-term growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth, based on cross-country productivity convergence and China’s featured demographic evolution. In a nonlinear open economy catch-up growth model, per capital GDP growth of the followers depend on that of the leading economy and time varying convergence of the relative per capita GDP. Comparable open economies of China are identified in terms of relative per capita GDP and the historical data of which are used to project China’s trajectory of productivity convergence and then the growth of per capita GDP. Projection shows China’s future GDP growth will gradually descend from 6.6–6.7% (2016–2020) to 2.6–2.7% (2046–2050) in low variant. Predictions under medium and high variants are provided as well. The importance of further opening-up domestic markets, elimination of birth control policies and accumulation of human capital in the process of promoting urbanization are highlighted and have significant implications for the economic restructuring and transformation of China.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1591574

 

7．Business fixed investment of Chinese manufacturing firms in the post-financial crisis era

Ping Yan

Pages: 109-121

ABSTRACT：

I document the investment decline of Chinese manufacturing firms after 2011, following the end of the 4 trillion fiscal stimulus program and expansionary monetary policies for combating the 2008–2009 financial crisis. I employ a difference-in-difference strategy to show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) acted as investment stabilizers. In the post-crisis era, SOEs’ investment rates fell less compared to their private counterparts. Moreover, they had a smaller chance of exiting the market than private firms. In the face of monetary tightening, SOEs enjoyed a much smaller increase in the interest rates of their long-term debts. Although these may fuel the growth of the SOE sector relative to the private sector, and thus raised concerns for capital misallocation, the adverse effect on reallocation was dampened by shadow banking.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1700630