Table of Content 期刊目录

1.The impacts of the US dollar index and the investors’ expectations on the AH Premium – a macro perspective

Zhang Xuechun, Jia Yandong & Lv Tingting

Pages: 249-269

2. Evaluating the accrual anomaly in the Chinese stock market with the decomposition method

Zhuo Huang, Zhimin Qiu & Dawei Lin

Pages: 270-289

3. Inflation in China, 1953-1978

Philip Hans Franses

Pages: 290-298

4. RETRACTED ARTICLE: Why did they get in trouble? The influence of firm characteristics and institutional distance in the case of Chinese outward foreign direct investment

Abdelkader Derbali & Ali Lamouchi

Pages: 299-321

5. Trade and life expectancy in China: a cointegration analysis

Muhammad Tahir

Pages: 322-338

6. Does China use its trade potential in the Belt and Road Initiative properly? The relations between Chinese value added and trade potential in the European countries: bottom-up analysis

Ewa Cieślik

Pages: 339-363

7. Does trade policy related uncertainty affect international trade? Evidence from the US-China commodity trade

Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer

Pages: 364-375

8. Who will win from the trade war? Analysis of the US–China trade war from a micro perspective

Vani Archana

Pages: 376-393

 

 

Article Abstract 文章摘要

1.The impacts of the US dollar index and the investors’ expectations on the AH Premium – a macro perspective

Zhang Xuechun, Jia Yandong & Lv Tingting

Pages: 249-269

ABSTRACT：

This paper aims to provide a macro perspective to explanations of the AH premium, that is, the A and H share price differences of cross-listed companies, particularly the surge of the AH Premium Index after 2015: after the initiation of Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH Connect) in November 2014, the AH Premium Index jumped from 115.8 to 126.4, with a significant decline in its variance. We find that the impacts of US Dollar Index shocks dominated the overall changes in the AH premium on an individual equity basis over 2007–2019. Moreover, the US Dollar Index explains 50%-70% of the changes in the AH Premium Index, and investors’ expectations of the Chinese economy add another 10% to the explanatory power. Segregating the impact of the US Dollar Index, the average AH Premium Index only increased 2.7 percentage points, from 98.8 to 101.5. Further, after the initiation of SH Connect, the prices of cross-listed shares have been more responsive to exchange rate information. Over a longer term, SH Connect may have reduced the impacts of the US Dollar Index and increased the impacts of effective prices on equity prices. These findings demonstrate that hedging foreign exchange risks is the main reason for investment in H shares of mainland firms and, as a result, enhancing RMB foreign exchange rate flexibility is the core component as well as precondition for financial market opening in China. When market conditions permit, policy makers and regulators should consider a pilot program allowing investors to arbitrage the H shares of mainland firms with the AH premium in a reasonable range. This may further reduce the AH premium and enable the share prices to converge in the long run.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2020.1804709

 

2. Evaluating the accrual anomaly in the Chinese stock market with the decomposition method

Zhuo Huang, Zhimin Qiu & Dawei Lin

Pages: 270-289

ABSTRACT：

We evaluate the explanations for accrual anomaly in the Chinese stock market using the decomposition method. The results show that institutional ownership best explains the accrual anomaly with an explanatory power of about 46%, equity growth (EG) explains 12% of the anomaly, and the residual fraction of around 32% is unexplained by any candidate explanations. Our findings indicate that the naïve investor fixation hypothesis is favored to explain the accrual anomaly in China, and the existing explanations cannot fully explain the anomaly.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2020.1726601

 

3. Inflation in China, 1953-1978

Philip Hans Franses

Pages: 290-298

ABSTRACT：

This paper reconstructs annual inflation figures for China, for the period 1953–1978, where inflation concerns the Consumer Price Index (CPI). One alternative index and two new models are considered. The models associate CPI based inflation with the GDP inflator and with retail prices, for the years after 1978. A combination of the three ‘forecasts’ is taken as the reconstructed series. This new inflation series has proper face value and can be used for macroeconomic data analysis in China.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2019.1679329

 

4. RETRACTED ARTICLE: Why did they get in trouble? The influence of firm characteristics and institutional distance in the case of Chinese outward foreign direct investment

Abdelkader Derbali & Ali Lamouchi

Pages: 299-321

 

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2020.1715581

 

5. Trade and life expectancy in China: a cointegration analysis

Muhammad Tahir

Pages: 322-338

ABSTRACT：

The purpose behind this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between trade openness and life expectancy for the Chinese economy. Data are collected for the period 1970–2015. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modeling technique is utilized to find out the presence of long- and short-run relationship between trade openness and life expectancy. The findings indicated a stable long-run positive relationship between trade openness and life expectancy. Government expenditures, number of physicians and human capital growth have also positively and significantly impacted life expectancy. Similarly, growth of employment and number of beds in hospitals have influenced life expectancy negatively. Moreover, in the short run, government expenditures, growth of employment, number of physicians and human capital growth have maintained their relationship with life expectancy both in terms of coefficient signs and significance level while the relationship between trade openness, number of hospital beds and life expectancy is reversed.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2020.1783745

 

6. Does China use its trade potential in the Belt and Road Initiative properly? The relations between Chinese value added and trade potential in the European countries: bottom-up analysis

Ewa Cieślik

Pages: 339-363

ABSTRACT：

The aim of research is to evaluate China’s potential trade to selected European markets covered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Chinese value added embodied in these countries gross exports. The study tried to answer the question: is there relation between Chinese actual exports coverage of its potential exports to selected European markets and China’s value added embodied in gross exports of its trade partners in Europe. The study covered 54 industries from selected 19 European countries which are the members of Chinese BRI. The study confirmed the positive relationship between Chinese actual exports coverage and China’s value added embodied in gross exports of its selected trade partners in Europe. Moreover, the analysis allowed identifying European markets that were characterized by high export potential for China and still not adequately used both in terms of total exports and value added. The study also identified specific industries, where China was particularly exploiting its exports.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538963.2020.1715580

 

7. Does trade policy related uncertainty affect international trade? Evidence from the US-China commodity trade

Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer

Pages: 364-375

ABSTRACT：

This study examines the impacts of US and China trade policy uncertainties on the US’s commodity level bilateral trade balances (henceforth, BTBs) with China. To this end, newly created trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU) indexes for both countries are used and the nonlinear ARDL model is applied. Empirical findings indicate that the impacts of US and China TPU indexes on US’s aggregated and disaggregated data BTBs are mostly different. The aggregated data model finds that increases in the US TPU index worsen US’s BTB. However, disaggregated models find ‘improvements’ in 4 and ‘no impacts’ in 3 commodities out of 10. Similarly, while the aggregated data model finds that increases in China’s TPU index improves US’s BTB, disaggregated models find ‘worsen’ in 4 and ‘no impacts’ in 5 commodities our of 10. Furthermore, increases in the US’s TPU index worsen US BTB the most in commodity beverages and tobacco.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618

 

8. Who will win from the trade war? Analysis of the US–China trade war from a micro perspective

Vani Archana

Pages: 376-393

ABSTRACT

Over the past two years, China and the US are going on a trade war imposing tariffs on one another’s goods and this is hurting each other’s businesses. The focus of the present paper is to analyse the costs and benefits of tariff policy changes by the two economies. A partial equilibrium model approach based on highly disaggregated data shows that when China and the US are moving rapidly towards tariff imposition, it is largely deleterious from both the economy’s perspective in terms of trade and welfare. If we compare both the economies, the losses would be considerably higher for the US than China. However, trade liberalization is clearly associated with improved trade flows in the US and additional welfare gains in China. China would gain particularly in consumer goods, industrial goods and agricultural goods whereas the US would be better off opening its consumer goods and industrial goods.

Link to the original text:：

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2020.1785073