Seminar on International Economics (6.3)

时间：2014年6月3日（周二）14：00－15：30 pm

地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心512教室
主持：余淼杰
主讲：Prof. Kang Shi（The Chinese University of Hong Kong）

主题：SOE and Chinese Real Business Cycle

摘要：Chinese real business cycle (henceforth, RBC) exhibited its unique pattern, which is characterized by moderate consumption volatility, substantially low investment volatility, and acyclical trade balance. These features are in contrast with business cycles in other emerging markets and cannot be explained well by existing emerging market RBC theories. Motivated by the facts that China undertook dramatic and persistent reform on State-owned Enterprise (SOE) in the past thirty years, we construct a full-fledged general equilibrium model with SOE sector and show that the model does a fairly good job to account for the above features. The two dominant driving forces are the shock to the share of downstream SOE in manufacturing sector and the shock to upstream SOE’s monopolistic position. These two shocks together can explain 85 percent of output volatility, 79 percent of consumption volatility, 72 percent investment volatility, and 57 percent of the volatility of trade balance-to-output ratio. Relatively speaking, standard shocks such as permanent productivity shock, credit shocks, country risk premium shocks, and preference shocks are less important in explaining Chinese economic fluctuations. Our results show that Chinese real business cycle may be affected substantially by domestic policies on resource reallocation through endogenous TFP fluctuations.

演讲者简介：Kang Shi，香港中文大学经济学院副教授，博士毕业于英属哥伦比亚大学。研究兴趣为国际宏观经济学、中国经济、货币经济学、贸易与发展等。目前已在Journal of International Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Money, Credit and Banking等国际一流期刊上发表多篇文章。