CCER讨论稿:Do Lockdowns Bring about Additional Mortality Benefits or Costs? Evidence based on Death Records from 300 Million Chinese People

发布日期:2020-11-30 10:29    来源:

E2020012                                                      2020-11-30

Authors: Jinlei Qi1, Dandan Zhang, Xiang Zhang, Peng Yin, Jiangmei Liu, Yuhang Pan, Tanakao Takana, Peiyu Xie, Zhaoguang Wang, Shuocen Liu, George F. Gao, Guojun He, Maigeng Zhou

Objectives To estimate the short-term effect of stringent lockdown policies on non-COVID-19 deaths, and explore the heterogeneity of lockdowns on mortality in China after the COVID-19 outbreak.
Design Employing a difference-in-differences method. 
Setting Using comprehensive death records covering around 300 million Chinese people, we estimate the impacts of city and community lockdowns on non-COVID-19 mortality outside of Wuhan. 
Participants 44,548 deaths recorded in 602 counties or districts by the Disease Surveillance Point System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 January 2020 to14 March 2020.
 Results We find that lockdowns reduced the number of non-COVID-19 deaths by 4.9% (cardiovascular deaths by 6.2%, injuries by 9.2%, and non-COVID-19 pneumonia deaths by 14.3%). A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that more than 32,000 lives could have been saved from non-COVID-19 diseases/causes during the 40 days of the lockdown on which we focus.
Main outcome measures Weekly numbers of deaths from all causes without COVID-19, cardiovascular diseases, injuries, pneumonia, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, and other causes were used to estimate the associations between lockdown policies and mortality.
 Conclusions The results suggest that the rapid and strict virus countermeasures not only effectively controlled the spread of COVID-19 but also brought about massive unintended public health benefits. The health benefits are likely driven by significant reductions in air pollution, traffic, and human interactions. These findings can help better inform policymakers around the world about the benefits and costs of city and community lockdowns policies in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Keyword: Lockdown; Anti-contagion policy; COVID-19; China