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发展经济学workshop：The War Origin of Property Rights and State Capacity: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion
发布日期：2017-12-01 07:46 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
发展经济学workshop
时间：2017年12月1日（周五）13：30－15：00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：张晓波、李力行、席天扬
主讲人：徐立新(世界银行)
题目：The War Origin of Property Rights and State Capacity: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion
摘要：The long-term impact and the underlying mechanisms of civil wars are understudied in the literature. We study the long-term impacts on population growth of the Taiping Rebellion (TPR, 1851-1864) in China, the deadliest civil war in history and a key turning point toward modernity in Chinese history. By analyzing a dataset of 266 prefectures from 1776 to 2000, we document that, compared to the control group, the TPR had caused a permanent population loss in the TPR prefectures, and the population level in the TPR regions (compared to the baseline year 1776) relative to other regions remain 43 percent lower even ten dozen years after the Rebellion. The results remain after we instrument TPR with a plausible instrument based on the war routing strategy of the TPR. We offer suggestive evidence that two important channels for the TPR effect are land property rights and wartime internal taxes (known as Likin) for cross-regional transactions. We also find that the main channel for TPR effects on current state capacity is property rights, not wartime fiscal capacity. We further offer a placebo test that another great Famine of large scope, the ENSO famine (1876-1880), did not result in permanent population effect perhaps because it did not affect land property rights. The TPR thus has affected long-term development through property rights and state capacity built up during the war.
主讲人简介：徐立新，世界银行研究部首席经济学家。1989年从北大经济学院毕业，获学士、硕士学位，1996年获芝加哥大学经济学博士学位。1996年起一直就职于世界银行发展研究部，2010年起任研究部首席经济学家。他的研究范围涵盖应用微观经济学和发展经济学的诸多领域，并取得了丰硕的研究成果。他在American Economic Review, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Labor Economics，Journal of Law and Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, 等经济学、金融学杂志上发表50多篇论文。他不仅研究成果丰富，其研究也有国际影响力。他有十篇左右文章被列入诸多名校学科阅读书单（syllabus）或者Edgar Reference Collection经典文集；他的文章也被英国经济学家杂志、Marginal Revolution blogs、 NBER Monthly Digest等提起。截止目前，他论文在Google Scholar上总引用次数大约7000次，H因子是34, 有13篇文章被谷歌学者应用200次以上。他是牛津大学兼职研究员，罗纳德·科斯学院兼职教授。根据RePec资料系统，他在世界经济学界排名前4%，是合作才能的前1%, H 指数的前2%， 以及跨领域指数的前3%。
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发展经济学workshop：The War Origin of Property Rights and State Capacity: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion
发布日期：2017-12-01 07:46 来源：北京大学国家发展研究院
发展经济学workshop
时间：2017年12月1日（周五）13：30－15：00 pm
地点：北大国发院/中国经济研究中心小教室
主持人：张晓波、李力行、席天扬
主讲人：徐立新(世界银行)
题目：The War Origin of Property Rights and State Capacity: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion
摘要：The long-term impact and the underlying mechanisms of civil wars are understudied in the literature. We study the long-term impacts on population growth of the Taiping Rebellion (TPR, 1851-1864) in China, the deadliest civil war in history and a key turning point toward modernity in Chinese history. By analyzing a dataset of 266 prefectures from 1776 to 2000, we document that, compared to the control group, the TPR had caused a permanent population loss in the TPR prefectures, and the population level in the TPR regions (compared to the baseline year 1776) relative to other regions remain 43 percent lower even ten dozen years after the Rebellion. The results remain after we instrument TPR with a plausible instrument based on the war routing strategy of the TPR. We offer suggestive evidence that two important channels for the TPR effect are land property rights and wartime internal taxes (known as Likin) for cross-regional transactions. We also find that the main channel for TPR effects on current state capacity is property rights, not wartime fiscal capacity. We further offer a placebo test that another great Famine of large scope, the ENSO famine (1876-1880), did not result in permanent population effect perhaps because it did not affect land property rights. The TPR thus has affected long-term development through property rights and state capacity built up during the war.
主讲人简介：徐立新，世界银行研究部首席经济学家。1989年从北大经济学院毕业，获学士、硕士学位，1996年获芝加哥大学经济学博士学位。1996年起一直就职于世界银行发展研究部，2010年起任研究部首席经济学家。他的研究范围涵盖应用微观经济学和发展经济学的诸多领域，并取得了丰硕的研究成果。他在American Economic Review, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Labor Economics，Journal of Law and Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Growth, 等经济学、金融学杂志上发表50多篇论文。他不仅研究成果丰富，其研究也有国际影响力。他有十篇左右文章被列入诸多名校学科阅读书单（syllabus）或者Edgar Reference Collection经典文集；他的文章也被英国经济学家杂志、Marginal Revolution blogs、 NBER Monthly Digest等提起。截止目前，他论文在Google Scholar上总引用次数大约7000次，H因子是34, 有13篇文章被谷歌学者应用200次以上。他是牛津大学兼职研究员，罗纳德·科斯学院兼职教授。根据RePec资料系统，他在世界经济学界排名前4%，是合作才能的前1%, H 指数的前2%， 以及跨领域指数的前3%。
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