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微观理论workshop: Learning with Uncertain Signal Structure
发布日期：2024-04-11 12:00 来源：
时间：4月11日（周四）10:30 a.m.-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302
主讲人：闵炜程（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院助理教授）
主持老师：吴泽南，石凡奇（经院）；胡岠（国发院）
参与老师：胡涛，吴泽南，石凡奇（经院）；汪浩，胡岠，邢亦青（国发院）；翁翕，刘烁（光华）
题目: Learning with Uncertain Signal Structure
摘要：A decision-maker repeatedly chooses between a familiar source and an unfamiliar source to learn a persistent fundamental. When the signal structure of the unfamiliar source is also uncertain, the learning problem is two-dimensional. Moreover, the two dimensions become naturally correlated as the decision-maker chooses the unfamiliar source over time. This paper makes a novel observation that it is the correlation, instead of the marginal belief over the uncertain signal structure, that determines the expected informativeness of the unfamiliar source. Based on this observation, this paper characterizes the decision-maker's asymptotic choice of source and obtains a counterintuitive result: for any (full-support) joint prior, the decision-maker may settle on the familiar source almost surely, even if the true signal structure of the unfamiliar source Blackwell dominates that of the familiar source. As an implication, this result explains the well-documented preference towards familiarity or status quo from a rational perspective.
主讲人介绍：Weicheng received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 2022 and is currently an Assistant Professor at Antai College of Economics and Management. Prior to this, he received a Bachelor’s degree from Fudan University and a Master’s degree from London School of Economics and Political Science. He is primarily interested in microeconomic theory and behavioral economics, with special emphasis on information economics and bounded rationality.
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首页
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微观理论workshop: Learning with Uncertain Signal Structure
发布日期：2024-04-11 12:00 来源：
时间：4月11日（周四）10:30 a.m.-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302
主讲人：闵炜程（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院助理教授）
主持老师：吴泽南，石凡奇（经院）；胡岠（国发院）
参与老师：胡涛，吴泽南，石凡奇（经院）；汪浩，胡岠，邢亦青（国发院）；翁翕，刘烁（光华）
题目: Learning with Uncertain Signal Structure
摘要：A decision-maker repeatedly chooses between a familiar source and an unfamiliar source to learn a persistent fundamental. When the signal structure of the unfamiliar source is also uncertain, the learning problem is two-dimensional. Moreover, the two dimensions become naturally correlated as the decision-maker chooses the unfamiliar source over time. This paper makes a novel observation that it is the correlation, instead of the marginal belief over the uncertain signal structure, that determines the expected informativeness of the unfamiliar source. Based on this observation, this paper characterizes the decision-maker's asymptotic choice of source and obtains a counterintuitive result: for any (full-support) joint prior, the decision-maker may settle on the familiar source almost surely, even if the true signal structure of the unfamiliar source Blackwell dominates that of the familiar source. As an implication, this result explains the well-documented preference towards familiarity or status quo from a rational perspective.
主讲人介绍：Weicheng received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 2022 and is currently an Assistant Professor at Antai College of Economics and Management. Prior to this, he received a Bachelor’s degree from Fudan University and a Master’s degree from London School of Economics and Political Science. He is primarily interested in microeconomic theory and behavioral economics, with special emphasis on information economics and bounded rationality.
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