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北京大学国家发展研究院

宏观经济学workshop：Borrowing like China? A Theory of Guarantee Multipliers

发布日期：2024-03-29 12:00    来源：

题目: Borrowing like China? A Theory of Guarantee Multipliers 

主讲人：刘泽豪

时间：2024年3月29日 上午10:00 – 11:30

地点：经济学院107 

摘要：Government guarantees on collateral yield a multiplier effect, whereby levying one unit of tax to provide guarantees can amplify loan volumes by more than one unit. The policy works through facilitating efficient utilization of the collateral value in excess of the optimal investment scale when firms are using information-sensitive debt contracts, and through alleviating the limitations imposed by the no-information-production constraint when firms are using information-insensitive contracts. Appropriate levels of tax and guarantee help the economy achieve the socially optimal allocation. When the government has incentive to renege on its commitment, a negative shock to collateral quality can catalyze a crisis due to equilibrium collapse prompted by a breakdown of trust. Transition to a market-based insurance system and a debt swap program represent two avenues to address the financial crises. 

主讲人简介：刘泽豪，中国人民大学财政金融学院货币金融系副教授，中国人民大学中国金融市场与政策研究所副所长。


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