时间：2016年4月11日（周一）13：30－15：00
地点：北大国家发展研究院 朗润园 万众楼大教室
主持人：霍德明 王敏 赵波
主讲人：JINHUA ZHAO（赵金华）

题目： Aggregate Emission Intensity Targets

摘要： Emission intensity targets have attracted attention in international climate negotiations and have been adopted by a number of nations in their INDCs in the 2015 Paris Agreement. We study aggregate intensity targets that are adopted at the national, regional or sectoral level but are implemented through a regular cap and trade scheme where firms face caps not tied to their outputs. We compare the intensity target with an expected emission equivalent quantity target that caps a nation’s total emissions and a price target that sets a nation’s carbon tax, and obtain simple and intuitive ranking conditions for the targets. The ranking conditions depend only on the variance and covariance of GDP and emissions, in addition to the slope ratio of marginal abatement cost and marginal emission damage functions. Intensity targets are more likely to dominate the other two as the GDP and emissions are more positively correlated, and as the targets become more stringent. We apply the ranking conditions to the top 12 carbon emitters that have committed to specific GHG targets. Using historical GDP and emissions data as well as their INDCs, we find that intensity targets dominate quantity targets for almost all 12 nations except for India and South Africa, and may dominate price targets for Russia, South Korea and Mexico. (JEL:Q58)

主讲人简介：赵金华，Michigan State University经济系教授。（简历见附件） cv8-web08