发展经济学workshop

时间：11月26日周三下午2—3：30
地点：国家发展研究院万众楼一楼小教室
主讲人： 冯帅章 上海财经大学

Unemployment and Labor Force Participation in China: Long Run Trends and Short Run Dynamics

摘要

Using nationally representative Chinese household survey data, this paper reports for the first time China's unemployment rates and labor force participation rates from 1988 to 2009. The unemployment rate averaged 3.4% in 1988-1995, but has since risen sharply during the period of mass lay-off from State-owned-enterprises in 1995-2002, and reached an average of 8.4% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. Labor force participation rate has declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995-2002 when unemployment rates increased most significantly. We also report results for different demographic groups, different regions, and different cohorts. Lastly, we use matched monthly data to study labor market dynamics for the period of 2004-2006, and show that the Chinese labor market is characterized by very low mobility among different labor force statuses and the prevalence of long-term unemployment.