主讲人：卢凌飞，中国人民大学

题目：Hedging Exchange Rate Risk through Global Sourcing

参与老师：余昌华、薛思帆

时间：2026年11月17日（周二）上午10:00-11:30（北京时间）

地点：承泽园245教室

摘要：

This paper shows how exporters can hedge exchange rate risk through their choice of import sources and identifies when this insurance is costly. A firm commits to input quantities after orders are signed and before exchange rates are realized, so its contracts pin down the currency exposure it can hedge. Even the least-cost sourcing plan provides a natural hedge when import costs and export revenue move together in home currency. In a mean–variance model of global sourcing, we give a sufficient condition—sources differ in the covariance of their payments with operating profit per unit of input service—under which any firm that penalizes profit variance pays a strictly positive sourcing premium, the cost of active hedging: a small reallocation from the least-cost plan reduces profit variance at first order while raising expected expenditure only at second order. At fixed sales, re-invoicing an order in a different currency can reshuffle sourcing, whereas moving it to another destination cannot: only the currency composition of revenue matters. Extensions characterize residual exposure under endogenous export invoicing and costly financial hedging, and a measurement strategy maps the model to customs data.

主讲人介绍：

卢凌飞，中国人民大学财政金融学院货币金融系助理教授，中国人民银行研究局访问研究员（挂职锻炼）。香港科技大学商学院经济学博士，美国哥伦比亚大学商学院访问学者，香港科技大学商学院经济与金融学学士。主要研究领域为国际贸易、国际金融与开放宏观经济。主要研究课题包括汇率风险、贸易网络、进出口联动、货币政策与贸易信贷等。学术成果有关于进口企业信贷约束和汇率传递的文章发表于Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ，关于美联储货币政策的溢回-溢出效应与国际成本渠道的文章在Journal of Monetary Economics 收到第二轮Revise & Resubmit，并有多篇工作论文在美国国家经济研究局（NBER）中国经济研究组会议，世界计量经济学会世界大会（ESWC），中国国际贸易研究会（CTRG）年会等国内外顶级会议上展示。