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第九讲：Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing
发布日期：2023-11-20 09:57 来源：
第九讲： Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing
时间： 北京时间 2023年11月21日周二上午10:00-11:30
Time: Tuesday 21 November 2023, 10-11:30 a.m. Beijing time
(Monday 20 November 2023, 9-10:30 p.m. US Eastern time)
地点/Venue：线上 加入 Zoom 会议
（会议号：868 7941 4705 密码：2023）
主讲人/Speaker: 金哲 Ginger Zhe Jin
主持人/Host：胡佳胤 Jiayin Hu
摘要/Abstract:
This paper provides the first theory and evidence on the role of presale policies in the residential housing market. To do so, we construct a novel dataset of unfinished projects, presale policies, and land auction outcomes across 270 major cities of China. By project starting year, we identify 2,330 unfinished residential projects from 2010 to 2017 on a citizen complaint website run by the central government. We find that both presale criterion and postsale construction cost supervision relate to a lower probability of unfinished projects. But only presale criterion relates negatively to the pace of new housing development, measured by developers' multi-tasking and land auction outcomes. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the average bundle of presale policies is inferior to the Pareto frontier in our sampled cities. Reducing the presale criterion to the minimum level required by the central government and increasing the postsale supervision by 1.4 standard deviation can relate to a 20% reduction in the occurrence of unfinished projects, while keeping the pace of new housing development unchanged.
主讲人介绍/Biography:
Ginger Zhe Jin is currently Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. In 2015-2017, she was on leave at the Federal Trade Commission, serving as the Director of the FTC Bureau of Economics from January 2016 to July 2017. From January 2019 to May 2020, she was on leave at Amazon.com as Amazon Scholar and Senior Principal Economist.
Most of her research focuses on information asymmetry among economic agents and how to provide information to overcome the information problem. The applications she has studied include retail food safety, health insurance, prescription drugs, e-commerce, regulatory inspection, scientific innovation, air quality, blood donation, vaccination, intrafamilial interaction, data regulation, and consumer protection. Her research has been published in leading economics, management and marketing journals, with support from the National Science Foundation, the Net Institute, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Many of her works have been covered by major media outlets including Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Bloomberg, and Los Angeles Times.
She is currently a managing editor of the International Journal of Industrial Organization, associate editor of RAND Journal of Economics, advisory council member of Journal of Industrial Economics, and board member of Industrial Organization Society. She has been Research Associate of NBER since 2012.
In October 2014, she co-founded Hazel Analytics, an analytics company that promotes the use of open government data.
She received her PhD in Economics from UCLA in 2000.
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第九讲：Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing
发布日期：2023-11-20 09:57 来源：
第九讲： Haste or Waste? The Role of Presale in Residential Housing
时间： 北京时间 2023年11月21日周二上午10:00-11:30
Time: Tuesday 21 November 2023, 10-11:30 a.m. Beijing time
(Monday 20 November 2023, 9-10:30 p.m. US Eastern time)
地点/Venue：线上 加入 Zoom 会议
（会议号：868 7941 4705 密码：2023）
主讲人/Speaker: 金哲 Ginger Zhe Jin
主持人/Host：胡佳胤 Jiayin Hu
摘要/Abstract:
This paper provides the first theory and evidence on the role of presale policies in the residential housing market. To do so, we construct a novel dataset of unfinished projects, presale policies, and land auction outcomes across 270 major cities of China. By project starting year, we identify 2,330 unfinished residential projects from 2010 to 2017 on a citizen complaint website run by the central government. We find that both presale criterion and postsale construction cost supervision relate to a lower probability of unfinished projects. But only presale criterion relates negatively to the pace of new housing development, measured by developers' multi-tasking and land auction outcomes. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the average bundle of presale policies is inferior to the Pareto frontier in our sampled cities. Reducing the presale criterion to the minimum level required by the central government and increasing the postsale supervision by 1.4 standard deviation can relate to a 20% reduction in the occurrence of unfinished projects, while keeping the pace of new housing development unchanged.
主讲人介绍/Biography:
Ginger Zhe Jin is currently Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland, College Park. In 2015-2017, she was on leave at the Federal Trade Commission, serving as the Director of the FTC Bureau of Economics from January 2016 to July 2017. From January 2019 to May 2020, she was on leave at Amazon.com as Amazon Scholar and Senior Principal Economist.
Most of her research focuses on information asymmetry among economic agents and how to provide information to overcome the information problem. The applications she has studied include retail food safety, health insurance, prescription drugs, e-commerce, regulatory inspection, scientific innovation, air quality, blood donation, vaccination, intrafamilial interaction, data regulation, and consumer protection. Her research has been published in leading economics, management and marketing journals, with support from the National Science Foundation, the Net Institute, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Many of her works have been covered by major media outlets including Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Bloomberg, and Los Angeles Times.
She is currently a managing editor of the International Journal of Industrial Organization, associate editor of RAND Journal of Economics, advisory council member of Journal of Industrial Economics, and board member of Industrial Organization Society. She has been Research Associate of NBER since 2012.
In October 2014, she co-founded Hazel Analytics, an analytics company that promotes the use of open government data.
She received her PhD in Economics from UCLA in 2000.
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