主讲人：Michal Szkup （University of British Columbia）

题目：International Trade Finance and Learning Dynamics

主持人：余昌华（北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2024年10月29日（周二）上午10:30-12:00（北京时间）

会议形式：线上

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https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82935329869?pwd=nsaOuR8esVkb48U8eAjxjuNXKBVQzJ.1

Meeting ID: 829 3532 9869

Passcode: 928653

摘要：

We study how trade finance and long-term relationships between exporters and importers facilitate international trade by allowing exporters to learn about demand uncertainty and counterparty risk. Using detailed micro-level Chilean data, we document that new exporters are more likely to use cash-in-advance (CIA) arrangements and gradually switch to providing trade credit as they continue to export. These dynamics are more salient for firms with less exporting experience and selling to riskier destinations, and also affect exports growth. We set up an international trade model in which firms make exporting and trade financing decisions subject to demand and counterparty risks, and estimate it to microdata. We use the model to quantify the relative importance of demand and counterparty risks and investigate how trade finance choices and learning affect the dynamics of export. Our model implies that the response of aggregate exports and the number of exporters to shocks to aggregate interest rates can overshoot in the short run if long-term relationships and relationship-specific knowledge are destroyed. Building up relationships takes time which makes the response to these shocks sluggish and persistent. Crucially, these responses depend on the riskiness of trade destinations.

主讲人介绍：

Michal Szkup is an Associate Professor of Economics at University of British Columbia. His research interest is in international macroeconomics, financial economics, and information economics with a particular focus on the role of coordination failures and financial frictions. He obtained PhD in Economics in 2014 from New York University and an undergraduate degree in economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2007.