Why Does Parental Mortality Increase Fertility in China? Norms, Salience, and Identity

时间：2026年11月06日（周五）10:00-11:30

地点：北大国发院承泽园246教室

主持人：雷晓燕、易君健

参与老师：张丹丹、李玲、刘国恩、黄炜

主讲人：郭汝飞，武汉大学经济与管理学院

摘要：While pronatalist cultural norms are pervasive, their behavioral influence often lies dormant until life events heighten cultural salience. We develop a theoretical model in which individuals endogenously choose between a traditional identity, characterized by an ingrained preference for lineage continuation, and a modern identity. An exogenous shock to cultural salience induces marginal individuals to adopt the traditional identity, raising optimal fertility even without material incentives. To test these predictions, we exploit parental mortality, a life event that heightens the salience of Confucian norms in Chinese society. Using an event-study design, we find that the death of a parent significantly increases childbearing among adult children, with the effect concentrated in regions with stronger Confucian culture. We also examine competing economic mechanisms, such as relief from eldercare burdens, bequests, and intergenerational childcare, and find that they do not explain the observed fertility response. Parental mortality shifts childbearing motives toward family responsibility and lineage continuation, highlighting the role of cultural salience in sustaining fertility amidst modern economic constraints.

主讲人简介：郭汝飞，武汉大学经济与管理学院副教授、博士生导师，健康经济与管理研究中心主任。香港中文大学经济学博士，研究方向为人口经济学。论文发表于Journal of Political Economy、The Economic Journal、Journal of Development Economics 以及《经济研究》、《管理世界》等学术期刊。担任Journal of Population Economics副主编、中国人口学会理事、劳动经济学会理事、中国世界经济学会理事，主持并参与多项国家自然科学基金、国家社会科学基金项目。（更多详细信息可参考郭汝飞老师个人主页：https://ems.whu.edu.cn/info/1689/22056.htm）