Table of Content 期刊目录
1. Understanding China’s road to common prosperity: background, definition and path
Shiyun Li
Pages: 1-13

2. A portrait of China’s economic transformation: from manufacturing to services
Bin Zhang, He Zhu & Jiajia Zhang
Pages: 14-27

3. Optimal public debt under demographic changes in China
Lixin Sun
Pages: 28-43

4. Is there a J-curve under COVID-19 effects
Mortaza Ojaghlou & Erginbay Uğurlu
Pages: 44-62

5. Market expectation management and renminbi exchange rate policy under depreciation pressure
Mei Li
Pages: 63-79

6. Impacts of health insurance on health care utilization and health behaviors among older people in China
Qingyuan Xue & Nopphol Witvorapong
Pages: 80-99

Article Abstract 文章摘要
1. Understanding China’s road to common prosperity: background, definition and path
Shiyun Li
Pages: 1-13
ABSTRACT
China’s ambition to realize common prosperity for all the people has received worldwide attention since its complete victory over extreme poverty in 2020. This paper summarizes for the first time the “who, what, when and how” that essentially characterizes common prosperity, i.e. common prosperity is prosperity for all the people, is prosperity in all aspects, means step-wise prosperity and calls for joint contribution, and clarifies that it is not equivalent to “becoming rich at the same time” or “being equally well off”, nor is it the same thing as egalitarianism. Contemporary China faces challenges including the development challenge, the distribution problem and the public products supply issue in achieving this long-term goal. Possible solutions may be fostering high-quality development, optimizing income distribution, strengthening the social safety net, achieving effective digital governance and promoting high-level opening-up.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950

2. A portrait of China’s economic transformation: from manufacturing to services
Bin Zhang, He Zhu & Jiajia Zhang
Pages: 14-27
ABSTRACT
The Chinese economy marked a turning point around 2010 to 2012, with economic growth, expenditure structure, industrial structure, and other macroeconomic indicators running counter to their earlier trends. There was a common cause behind all the changes: economic transformation from manufacturing to services. Starting with saturation in demand for manufactured goods, household consumption began to shift toward more human capital – intensive services, which led to a chain of effects in the industrial structure, slower economic growth, altered labor flows, as well as changes in the features of the business cycle. Compared with other high-income economies when they were at a similar development stage, China’s economic transformation from manufacturing to services has been the standard practice.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463

3. Optimal public debt under demographic changes in China
Lixin Sun
Pages: 28-43
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we use an overlapping-generations model to estimate the optimal public debt level in terms of the growth-maximizing theory under changing demographics and examine the fiscal sustainability in China. The results suggest that the optimal level of public debt in China lies in a scope of 70% to 88%, which varies as a function of the driving force of the production, the number of children, and the subsidy policy for rearing the children. On the basis of fiscal space framework, we can conclude that China’s public debt and thereby the fiscal position is sustainable in the near and medium terms. Sensitivity analyses and robustness tests also support our empirical findings. Our study provides insights into public debt management, population policy, and strategies for economic growth in China.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2033394

4. Is there a J-curve under COVID-19 effects
Mortaza Ojaghlou & Erginbay Uğurlu
Pages: 44-62
ABSTRACT
Because of the outbreak of pandemic COVID-19, the economy and financial markets had a sharp decline. Also, based on the lockdown, we saw that amount of production and trade had decreased. This situation continues, and the effect on trade is still an important concern. In this paper, we investigate whether COVID-19 has an effect on trade by means of the real exchange rate in China-EU27 and China-USA. By using J-curve concept, for each trade partner, we use three models, which are ARDL, NARDL, and Multiplier NARDL, using three different data periods considering COVID-19. The results show that inverted J-Curve is proved with the long-run J-Curve effects for both partners, while COVID-19 makes factors favor J-Curve. Although J-Curve was inverted before the pandemic of COVID-9, during the COVID-19, we recognize the effect of J-Curve, which shows that the effect of real exchange rate on trade of China-EU27 and China-USA seems to favor China.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2079194

5. Market expectation management and renminbi exchange rate policy under depreciation pressure
Mei Li
Pages: 63-79
ABSTRACT
Motivated by the capital outflow episode after the 8/11 renminbi exchange rate reform, we establish formal models to study renminbi exchange rate policy under depreciation pressure with a focus on its effect on market expectations. In an economy where capital controls are imposed, a central bank aims both to discourage speculative capital outflows and to reduce exchange rate misalignment. We find that (i) both capital controls and speculators’ uncertainty about the central bank’s exchange rate target can effectively discourage capital outflows; (ii) Any action taken by the central bank will send a signal to speculators about the central bank’s exchange rate target, causing a change in speculators’ expectations and subsequently in capital flows. This explains large capital outflows triggered by the 8/11 reform. A key takeaway is that exchange rate policy should take into account its effect on market expectations to avoid unnecessary exchange rate and capital flow volatility.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2042066

6. Impacts of health insurance on health care utilization and health behaviors among older people in China
Qingyuan Xue & Nopphol Witvorapong
Pages: 80-99
ABSTRACT
Using three waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey in 2005, 2008–2009, and 2011–2012, this study investigates the effect of health insurance on health care utilization and health behaviors of older people in China. Enrollment in a health insurance program represents the main explanatory variable, while total health expenditures (THE), out-of-pocket expenditures (OOP), smoking, drinking and physical inactivity represent outcomes of interest. This study finds that health insurance is associated with an increase in THE and a reduction in OOP, suggesting that insurance enhances access to health services while reducing financial burden. The effects of insurance on health behaviors are complex, associated with increased probabilities of smoking and drinking and a decreased probability of physical inactivity. Results vary across age, education and residential location groups and across time, due to the fact that the health insurance system changed significantly during the study period.
Link to the original text:：
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17538963.2022.2094585